Why the NFL's Best Team Won't Win the Super Bowl

Cards rookie John Brown has 10 catches for 165 yards and this diving touchdown in three preseason games. (Matt York/AP)
Cards rookie John Brown has 10 catches for 165 yards and this diving TD in three preseason games. (Matt York/AP)

REVELATIONS FROM THE ROAD

A name to remember … and a trade to remember.

GLENDALE, Ariz. — John Brown this, John Brown that. John Brown out wide, John Brown in the slot, John Brown at the top of bunch formations. Forget Sammy Watkins, we got John Brown! The 91st pick of the 2014 draft, from that big NFL feeder Pittsburg (Kans.) State, is the hit of Cardinals training camp, forcing his way into first-team dialogue (“I’d say we could use him about 60 percent of the offensive snaps,” coach Bruce Arians said), just a few months after he took the gridiron against Emporia State and Nebraska-Kearney.

The Cardinals traded the 20th overall pick to New Orleans for the 27th and 91st picks (first- and third-rounders). The Saints used the 20th pick to take wide receiver Brandin Cooks. The Cards picked safety Deone Bucannon at 27 and wide receiver John Brown at 91.

Now for the rest of the story, from Arizona GM Steve Keim on Friday:

The Cards had their eyes on three players as the first round neared its midpoint: Ryan Shazier, Zack Martin and Calvin Pryor. But Shazier went at 15, Martin at 16, Pryor at 18. Now the Cards had a grading gap in the next set of players they liked, and Keim had an idea. There was this one under-the-radar prospect the Cardinals loved: Brown, a wideout from Pittsburg State. The Cards had him rated their fifth wide receiver in the draft. Early second-round grade. He’d run the second-fastest 40 time at the combine among receivers but had a checkered college career. He started at Mars Hill (N.C.) College, transferred to Coffeyville Junior College in Kansas, actually got cut from Coffeyville’s team, and transferred to Pittsburg State, where he played the last three seasons. A burner, but small (5-9, 179), and it’d take a leap of faith that, given his size and level of competition, he could transition to the NFL. Throughout the organization, though, the opinion was the same: We’ve got to find a way to get John Brown.

CAMP CUPCAKE
That’s what Cards coach Bruce Arians called his team’s air-conditioned practices when Peter King visited last week. FULL STORY
The Cards now had four picks in the top 100: 27, 52, 84 and 91. Keim figured the team had several priorities other than wideout, where they were fine (Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, Ted Ginn), and he figured if Brown was still around at 91, at the bonus pick, he’d use that pick on Brown. Arizona got the physical safety it wanted at 27, Bucannon, a needed tight end (Troy Niklas) at 52 and a big defensive end to fit their 3-4 scheme (Kareem Martin) at 84. Now they waited. Keim paced. He called around to see which teams between 85 and 90 might take a receiver. He had a scout call Brown in a vague hope to tie up his phone line (as if he wouldn’t have call-waiting) as the picks went by.

With the 86th pick, the Philadelphia Eagles select … Josh Huff, wide receiver, Oregon.

Exhale. The Eagles’ second receiver in three rounds.

More nerves. A corner, defensive end and guard go next. One more pick. The Colts. They need a receiver. Their GM, Ryan Grigson, beats the bushes. He won’t … will he?

With the 90th pick, the Indianapolis Colts select … Donte Moncrief, wide receiver, Mississippi.

“YESSSSS!” was the first sound in the Cards’ draft room.

“Funny how these things work,” Keim said Friday. “We’re so excited. Bruce [Arians] is pumped. But of course, you pick a receiver from Pittsburg State and the fans say, ‘What the heck are they doing? Who is John Brown?’ Now look at it—John Brown’s the talk of the town.”

Arians is lining up Brown in the slot, tight to the formation as a faux tight end with blocking responsibilities, and wide on either side. I watched practice Friday, and Brown was in on six early snaps with the first unit, more than Ted Ginn or Juron Brown. John Brown caught one bomb from Palmer, getting behind his cover corner easily. He’s going to be one of the most interesting rookies to watch.

For the rest of his tenure in Arizona, Keim will be measuring Brown thusly: 20 for 27 and 91. Cooks for Bucannon and Brown. If Cooks is significantly better than Brown, but Bucannon plays big for Arizona, Keim will be fine with the deal. That’s how general managers think. “We think they’ll be both be impact players for us,” Keim said.

* * *

‘Gotta use your feet more.’ Isn’t that how it should be?

BEREA, Ohio — So, the penalties are still high in Week 3 of the preseason, but they’re down from the hair-raising 20.8 per game last weekend. For the 16 games this weekend, the combined accepted penalties were 17.6 per game. Average accepted penalties per regular-season game in 2013: 12.2.

Three good points made by Cleveland cornerback Joe Haden on the tightening of the rules from a conversation we had:

Joe Haden and the rest of the NFL defensive backs are trying to keep their hands off wide receivers. (Mark Duncan/AP)
Joe Haden and the rest of the NFL defensive backs are trying to keep their hands off wide receivers. (Mark Duncan/AP)

Me: How different is a cornerback’s game with no grabbing/handwork past five yards?

Haden: You gotta use your feet a whole lot more. You gotta make sure that you don’t grab. I’m going to play my game the way I normally play it. I don’t feel like I hold. You just gotta be conscious of it every play.

But don’t you still want to keep contact with the receiver downfield?

Haden: You want to touch them. You want to touch the receivers. I mean, it’s football. That’s going to happen. So you’re going to see what you’re going to get away with. I’m not going to completely put my arms around my back. So I’m going to plan to keep my technique how I think it’s going to be. And the referees, honestly, they do a good job of coming up to you and, “Hey watch your hands.” In Detroit [in the first preseason game], I got one official say something to me on one play. I went to go jam and my hand hit him in the face mask. He was like, “23, get your hands lower. Get your hands lower. Keep your hands lower.” Once he gave me that one warning, I was just playing my normal technique the way I normally play and I got no flags called. If they obviously see jersey pull, if they see things like that, that is a hold. But if it’s just messing around, bumping, touching, things like that I don’t think they’re going to be too strict on that, because I was playing it in that game in Detroit and it didn’t happen. If it’s pulling and grabbing when the ball is in the air, and all that contact, they’re throwing on that.

How do you practice not grabbing receivers?

Haden: Our coaches actually have us wearing boxing gloves sometimes. You can’t grab anything with those. So you really have to be able to use your feet and be able to just play ball. We still have $800 up for the first person to catch a pick with the gloves on.

* * *

My favorite story of the week.

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Sometimes you ask a question, just fishing, and you get an answer that becomes a story. My question, put to Houston GM Rick Smith, in town for joint practices with the Broncos before Saturday night’s preseason game in Denver: “Because you had the worst record in the league last year, you’ve got first priority on released players when teams cut their rosters. Doing anything special to get ready for it?”

A smile from Smith. A pause. A pause, trying to figure out what to say without giving away his strategy.

“We have to take advantage of that situation,” he said. “We have put a structure in place to do that. We had to live a nightmare to get this advantage, but we got it, and just like in the draft, we’re going to take full advantage to try to build the best roster we can.”

Our roster is a living, breathing thing,” Texans GM Rick Smith said, “and if there’s a player we see out there who is better than what we have, we’re going to act.

NFL rosters have to be cut from 90 to 75 by Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET, and from 75 to 53 by Saturday. The Texans have first crack at the 480 players cut by Tuesday afternoon. Houston also has its pick of 704 more when rosters get trimmed to the limit by Saturday night. Last year, Kansas City, with first waiver priority, plucked seven players who made the Chiefs’ opening-day 53-man roster.

So how does a team analyze 1,184 unemployed players so fast, and pick the four or six or eight or however many the Texans think can make the final roster?

Texans GM Rick Smith (Bob Levey/Getty Images)
Texans GM Rick Smith. (Bob Levey/Getty Images)

Smith usually does not have his college scouts doing any pro work. But this year he had his six area scouts for college coverage, plus national scouts Jon Carr and Ed Lambert, come to Houston at the start of camp to be briefed on a different plan this year. Those eight scouts were each assigned one NFL team—and a group of 10 to 15 players per team that Houston thought would be on the bubble at final cut-time—and told to write full reports on those players and have them ready when the cuts began this week. The other 24 teams were divided among the Texans’ pro personnel staff, which studies the rosters during the course of the year and would be more fluent in each team’s plans than the college scouts are.

Smith wouldn’t say much about his plans for the pool of 1,184 available players, other than to say it’s hard to find competent defensive linemen and offensive linemen on the street at any time, and they’d be investigating those thoroughly.

“Our roster is a living, breathing thing,” Smith said, “and if there’s a player we see out there who is better than what we have, we’re going to act.”

Where to start? Houston could grab help at tight end, tackle, guard, defensive line, outside linebacker (Brooks Reed struggled last year) and cornerback, even after going guard-tight end in rounds two and three of the draft. An interesting name surfaced Sunday night: Winston Justice, waived in the cut to 75 by the Broncos. That could be a surprise to Smith.

TEXANS PREVIEW: O’Brien builds without a quarterback

Last year the Chiefs got two major contributors out of the final cut work: cornerback Marcus Cooper and tight end Sean McGrath. In total, the seven players played 1,596 snaps. If Smith can hit the market that solidly this week, he should consider the man-hours spent on the project well worth it.

* * *

I cannot believe Keenan Allen was the 76th pick last year.

SAN DIEGO — Best play I saw in my month on the road: Wideout Keenan Allen of the Chargers ran a post-corner route against air toward the left corner of the end zone right in front of me, and Philip Rivers threw high, and Allen leaped, caught with his left hand and pirouetted to the ground like Lynn Swann. Well, hello.

Sure doesn’t look like just his second training camp. You can see out on the field the way he carries himself. He acts the leader, even at this young age, of the receiving group. Before practice on Thursday, GM Tom Telesco had raved about Allen’s separation ability—which is hard to tell in a camp practice, but it was very apparent he could get away from corners last season—and about his feel for space. “Great point guards can feel people around them,’’ Telesco said. “Keenan’s like that. He has a natural feel for space, finding the open area.’’

The Chargers practice wasn’t open to the media for the entire time, because technically they weren’t in training camp when I was there and didn’t have to. But I saw enough. That’s the benefit of being out on the road in the summer, when you can watch players when they’re (mostly) healthy—you can see live what you can’t see as well on TV or on tape. And I’ll remember that beautiful and athletic one-handed catch for a long time.

MORE CHARGERS: The MMQB’s San Diego training camp page

* * *

This occurred to me at 6:13 a.m. Sunday.

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Delta gate, Fort Lauderdale airport, waiting to board the 7 a.m. flight to LaGuardia.

More Browns
What’s going on in Cleveland? The MMQB’s writers bring you a season preview, a camp report and much more. 2014 Browns Camp Hub
Reading lots of stuff from overnight on the league—and seeing so much negative on the Bills and the Browns. The Bills got down 24-0 at the half at home, in newly refurbished Ralph Wilson Stadium. E.J. Manuel looked awful. Sammy Watkins sidelined with a rib injury. Boobirds out in force. News breaks that rotational defensive tackle Alan Branch was busted overnight Friday for being so drunk in his car that he had to stop, open the driver’s door and puke. (Branch has since been cut.) Quite a job you inherited, Doug Marrone. And the Browns: Offense looks awful, just like their Erie neighbors to the east. Brian Hoyer’s got no chance. Josh Gordon about to get whacked with a big suspension. Rams, even without Sam Bradford, hand the Browns their lunch. It’s 20-0, Rams, with third-string St. Louis quarterback Austin Davis playing, 28 minutes into the game.

And I think: Cleveland GM Ray Farmer could have two of the top five picks in the draft next April. The Browns have Buffalo’s first-round pick from the Sammy Watkins trade. Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston (if he comes out) or Brett Hundley … plus either a bookend tackle from a reportedly rich tackle crop next year, or another defensive piece. It’s way too early to project things like this, but two picks in the top five of any draft is gold—gold, Jerry, it’s gold!—and Farmer might just have made a golden deal to help the Browns of 2015 and beyond, even as the team faces another apparently lean year now.

Then I think: Manziel versus Mariota in training camp next July. I mean, the national press is going to rent the Courtyard in Berea for a month. 

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380 comments
MarshallLaFleur
MarshallLaFleur

Peter King needs to understand the difference between statistics and probabilities.  Also the mathematical law of Regression towards the mean.  These mathematical principles will show that the Seahawks are much more likely to win back to back super bowls, not less likely.

People have a tendency to see patterns where there are none that actually push them to think that the probabilities of something happening are going to stick with the way they have in the past.  That is actually backwards.  As things on one extreme, in this case not having back to back Superbowl wins, it is actually more likely that a future super bowl will have one.  This is the law of Regression towards the mean.  

This law can be easily demonstrated by the rolling of a standard 6 sided die.  Probability wise the average die roll is going to be 3.5  of course it is impossible to roll a 3.5 and it is just as likely to roll a 1 as it is to roll a 3.  If a d6 is rolled 3 times you could end up with a 4, 5, and 6.  Statistically it means that your average roll is a 5.  Probability wise your average roll is still going to be 3.5.  Odds are that the next 3 rolls are going to be lower than the current average of 5.  That doesn't mean that you can't roll a 5 or a 6 and continue to have a high statistic, it is just that the probabilities of it are lower and it is much more likely that the over all average roll is going to eventually even out.  

Where this goes in to play with football is that analysts, who know football quite well but statistics not so much, tend to adjust the probabilities to meet the historical statistics instead of expecting the statistics to line up more with probabilities.  Now to contradict myself slightly, this can in fact have a real effect on the game and that is because of the human factor.  Each player is a human and has emotions, expectations, and aspirations.  If a player on a team is told about the incorrect probabilities and buys in to them they may end up having an expectation to lose.  I think that has had an effect on some previous teams that they didn't expect to win the next superbowl because they already had a ring.  Inside their minds, psychologically, they set themselves up for failure and throw off the probabilities of another ring.  This brings me to why I think the Seahawks will be the one to end that trend.  You just can't get under their skin.  They have the determination and don't follow the post-superbowl curse myth that ESPN likes to throw around.  I'm not going to guarantee that the Seahawks will win the next Superbowl.  I'm just saying that probability wise they have the best chance of any NFL team and have the mentality to do so.

pauljfeeley
pauljfeeley

no stories on the Patriots?  this old dude has lost it

Divinewind
Divinewind

Most of you Hawk fans are basing everything on if the Seattle D stays healthy and remains the top D or a top three D in the league. Wilson is just average, so forget about the O opening up with him as QB. Seattle's O line which is very good and with the top flight run game intact Seattle can make a run of it again but if you are depending on the average Wilson....forget it! You will see soon enough what he is when the D weakens and Lynch is gone and the O line loses more players. Andrew Luck he isn't Seattle fan!

Zevhagadol
Zevhagadol

Vegas has Seahawks at 6-1 or 16.7%. Not far from the 15% someone posted based on history. 

Likely Seahawks will open up the offense; Carroll has signaled it; receivers look good, fast and a lot stronger than last year; Wilson has digested the second year, weathered a rough patch; he seems even better in the preseason. Imo Wilson is vastly underrated. I see a similarity to Brees' growth from 2005 to 2006 where he was turned loose.Brees went to a new team with a different approach. Carroll/Schneider have built a team capable of a different offense approach.


This is not your father's Seahawks. The Game Manger label will have been long forgotten after 2014 season. Hawks 2014 will be substantially different and better than Hawks 2013. I'd think they are 4-1 to repeat (is it re-Pete?)

rkrause63
rkrause63

I do have to say that it is interesting that the logic that seems to preclude Seattle from winning does not seem to have an affect on Denver in the media, even though a Superbowl loser winning the next year is considerably rarer than a repeat winner.  Plenty of picks for Denver but Seattle is destined to succomb to the repeat curse.  Irony at its finest. 

hunger
hunger

This is not analysis. This is just Peter picking some trivia (that we all already knew) to try to be original.  Peter, if you are not going to make your picks based on analysis, does that mean that you are just picking your teams out of a hat (or something else). You don't have to dig very far to see that most SB champs lose alot of their talent after players go search for the big paycheck. The Seattle situation is different because they are an improved team this year after already being dominant last year.

Obviously, anyone can get hurt, but why base your picks on that?

bcmarble
bcmarble

People that truly believe Seahawks will not repeat, are the same people that put all their hope into some vague statistic.  Team X has never beat Team Y in an outdoor stadium, in 40 deg temperature, in the central time zone, in the month of December, when the wind is blowing from the SW, when coming off a bye week.  When its never happened, people tend to think it never will, even when faced with reality.  Makes an interesting factoid, but its nothing Vegas would ever base their odds off of.

Jim21
Jim21

Good luck Seahawk fans. I watched them decimate the Bears in the 3rd preseason game and there was a noticeable difference in talent. The Bears have a good core of skill-position players on offense but the defense is all on the wrong side of 30 at too many critical positions. Also, the entire team is made up from FA acquisitions on one year deals. That says more about the late Jerry Angelo as GM than anything. 


The Seahawks are built from the ground up through the draft and have a nice core of young in-their-prime players that would seem to be together for quite a while. 


The Hawks are going to be a fun team to watch this year. 

Stuart Mesnik
Stuart Mesnik

Repeating is so difficult because every game the Super Bowl champ plays next year becomes mega important to each opponent. It's a way for each opponent to see how they measure up to the defending champ (almost like a mini playoff game each week). It's a very tough road.

scoutxx
scoutxx

The NFL's best team didn't win the Superbowl last year, so...

RobKnorr
RobKnorr

History is a horrible indicator of future results when it comes to predicting football games.

More accurate predictors are things such as strength of roster (starting talent as well as depth), strength of schedule, and strength of their opponents.


History actually has little to no predictive value whatsoever. 


Point is, if Peter King thinks that the Seahawks have the best team, then that is a MUCH better indicator of possible future results than history is.

How do (ostensibly intelligent) people not understand this?  

Wombat
Wombat

I would just like to say that if the odds of repeating a Super Bowl win is measured by the loyalty of the fan base the the Seahawks will win in a walk! Just reading this forum here shows me that Russell Wilson hasn't been this protected since he was in utero... 

PO'D in boca
PO'D in boca

Buffalo made a huge mistake with EJ and i said it from the day he was drafted as a die hard FSU fan and a lifelong Bills fan watched this kid all thru college there was nothing that made me say Wow, hes a good person and comes from a good family. the Bills tried to make a splash with the media hyping the ultra mobile QB's at the time i said it was a fad and still believe it being so the NFL you need to use your feet second, throw 1st, and somewhere in there have to be smart, now with that draft, RG3 is being challenged by Cousins, Andrew Luck a big mobile guy w smarts and big arm got his team to playoff twice, he will only get better when the line in front of him gets better than watch out.

EJ, has a decent line that has gotten better, he either needs to push the ball up field or sit on the sidelines and watch, we won games last year with a 3rd string QB.

take a page from SF's JH there is no job safe!!!


Maronne grow a set your also playing for your career here, stop coaching like a minor leaguer another hire i thought was a joke


only way we stay in news cause  JA Bon Jovi trying to move our team


a angry rant, i hope im wrong but another 8-8 year in the horizon 

DavidMessinger
DavidMessinger

Seattle is a team that is better than the 2013 and 2012 playoff teams in many ways and still have good depth ...whether they make it back to the SB, who knows a lot can happen over a season.  I will say this about Seattle after seeing them last year in training camp and following this year closely...they may actually have a pretty good O-Line this year...and better depth there...they have one of the best backup QB's in the league...and their receivers and RB's are better than last year...they still have really good special teams...and their D is still very good...even without Clemmons, Red, Clinton and Thurman...rather than concern themselves with the SB...they believe that every week is a championship opportunity...that approach payed dividend in 2013...I like the ROI in 2014 as well.

Chris P1
Chris P1

Well.....I don't know about that....I'm not saying that Seattle WILL repeat, but I wouldn't rule it out, either. A strong defense with a lot of good young players on the roster is a pretty good formula for success. Their division doesn't look to be as good as last year, either.

DavidGreene
DavidGreene

Picks:  New Orleans over Seattle in NFC Championship.  Denver over New England in AFC Championship.  Denver tops New Orleans by a TD in the Bowl.

Matthew W
Matthew W

Helmet meet Russel Wilson's knee ala Brady in the season opener in 2008. 


A team favored to go back to the Superbowl has their dreams dashed in a heartbeat.....


It happened to the Pats and its happened to others, so PED Cheathawks beware!

duckfan59
duckfan59

@Divinewind Just the fact that you're calling Wilson "average" demonstrates how clueless you are.

BigSchtick
BigSchtick

@Divinewind Another poster without a clue.

The offensive line is and has been average to below average.

Seattle D is two deep. They can and have survived injuries.

Wilson is average? What stat are you referring to? By the way his QB rating is 150 this preseason.

Lynch has two stellar back ups, one that many think will be a star.

Thanks for playing.

Divinewind
Divinewind

@Zevhagadol  Open up the offense? With Russell Wilson as your QB....surely you jest!

He is of average talent. Seattle's powerful D....good for better field position and a top flight RB with an excellent O line is the reason the Seahawks are a top notch team. We will see soon enough how average Wilson is when the D and O line weaken and Lynch is gone. (within two years)

Mech
Mech

@rkrause63 Seattle "dont get no" respect from the media. Thats ok we are used to that. The level of hypocrisy is a little high when I turn on the tv and they talk about (like you say) the good chance that Denver will be in the superbowl and completely ignore Seattle because (I guess) of the repeat curse. Seattle has only one Prime time appearance on tv this year and yet they are the champs. At the end of the season I will again hear how there is no stopping Manning and his award winning offense and again the Seahawks will blow them out.

duckfan59
duckfan59

@scoutxx Really? How do you figure? Who do yo think the "best team" was?
The Seahawks play in the best division in the NFL, only lost once at home all season and destroyed the Broncos in the Super Bowl by 35 points.

And, actually, the team that wins the Super Bowl is, by default, the "best team" since games are won on the field, not on paper or in fantasy football stat land.

Joebuckster
Joebuckster

@RobKnorr Actually, you're wrong. He's not talking about 'predicting football games' - he's talking about predicting the LAST football game of the season (and he's taking the field vs the incumbent). The best team in football (on paper) typically doesn't win the Super Bowl. It's all about match ups in the playoffs, unpredictable things happening, and injuries. How do you discount the fact that not a single Super Bowl champ in 8 years has even WON a playoff game?? Pretty compelling stuff, but ignore it if you like. 


You're not as intelligent as you think you are, but that's 'par for the course' for average intellects...

Buck2185
Buck2185

@Wombat  Especially since the loud mouthed, punk,POS Richard Sherman started buying his whole team Adderall.........

davidhd
davidhd

@Wombat well said, and you're exactly right. I am a Seahawks fan in the Seattle area, and I've never seen such enthusiasm. It's almost scary. 

nicolasgist
nicolasgist

@PO'D in boca Sorry buddy, but 8-8 would be a miracle for the Bills this year.  With an improving division, little talent on both sides of the ball, a bad QB, and a terrible OC (especially with how they use Spiller), I'm picking them as a bottom three team.  4-12 might be generous.

davidhd
davidhd

New Orleans would be lucky to duplicate the one score loss they suffered the last time they played Seattle. Seattle would have to play with Tarvaris Jackson at QB and Pete Carroll at CB to lose to the Saints.

BigSchtick
BigSchtick

@Matthew W Wait, I thought Seattle just needed a game manager and that is was only because of the defense that they won the Super Bowl?

By the way Matthew Karma is a beetch. Be careful crossing the street today.

duckfan59
duckfan59

@Divinewind @Zevhagadol This is just the partial resume of the "average" Russell Wilson:


NFL records and achievements
  • 2012 Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Year
  • Most passing touchdowns in a season by a rookie (26, tied with Peyton Manning)
  • 2× Pro Bowl (2012, 2013)
  • Most passing yards in a playoff game by a rookie (385 yards)[87]
  • Most regular season wins by a quarterback in his first two seasons (24); most total wins in first two seasons (28, including playoffs)[88]
  • Super Bowl XLVIII Champion (2014)

AmishPacker
AmishPacker

@Mech @rkrause63 Actually, Mech, I'm not sure where you are getting your information from. Seattle has 4 prime-time games this year. Week 1 opener, Week 5 MNF, Thanksgiving night, and Week 16 SNF. You get plenty of respect. You guys are still listed as number 1 defense and a top 10 offense. Most analysts are picking you guys to repeat. So I'm not sure where the "we don't get no respect" (watch double negatives please) comes from.

If you mean respect, like respect the players, well you have arguably the most annoying fans in the league and your players talk a lot of smack before the game even starts (see your saints game last year where you just ran up to saints players and got in their face during warm-ups). You are kind of known as the dirtiest team in the NFL, you don't get the type of reputation idly.


Most fans of a team that just won a super bowl think their team is underrated and that they should be heralded as a dynasty and greatest all time immediately. They are usually wrong, as this article points out. But either way, if you are gonna complain about your teams attention, at least get your facts straight.

RobKnorr
RobKnorr

@Joebuckster @RobKnorr First, I am not sure why you felt that an ad hominem attack was called for, but, since I happen to know my I.Q. test score, I am exactly as intelligent as I think I am.


Second, he is in fact talking about predicting football games...do you not consider the "LAST football game of the season" a football game? I do!


I agree that it's all about the matchups in the playoffs, but apparently you fail to realize that, saying that supports MY point, which is that history has little to do with making future predictions about football games, but the strength of roster, schedule and opponent do.


I am aware of the history of recent champions failures to repeat, I am also aware that the biggest reason for that wasn't because of the added difficulty of repeating, but rather the fact that several of those teams weren't as good the following season as they had been previously. 


Bottom line is that, if you're going to say that the Seahawks are the most talented (best) team in football, then pick AGAINST that team just because of history, that is really terrible logic.

BigSchtick
BigSchtick

@Joebuckster @RobKnorr 

Hmm Joe, where does he mention the "field"? He said he is picking another team, just not the one he thinks is the best.

The best team typically doesn't win the super bowl?

You're not as intelligent as you think you are, but that's 'par for the course' for average intellects...

davidhd
davidhd

@Joebuckster @RobKnorr I agree with Rob, and so does Vegas. Just because there has been a trend of super bowl winners losing the next season, Peter goes illogical and says Seattle won't do it, right after listing the reasons why they should. Have the past 8 super bowl winners fielded an equally talented, possibly even better team the next year? Have the past 8 winners been coached by Pete Carroll, a guy who won multiple college titles and knows how to handle success? Have the past 8 teams been as young as Seattle, with a QB still improving, and with all of its pro bowl talent still in its prime?


Everybody wants to "pick the field" because Seattle repeating seems unlikely, but that isn't what Peter is doing. He's actually going to pick a team. ESPN picked Denver, largely for the same reason Peter might, and that's just as bad as picking Seattle, from a historical perspective. Super bowl losers are even more historically unsuccessful than winners, and Peyton Manning just showed us how great a super bowl QB he is, and Denver's supporting cast is full of holes, even after signing a CB and a LB that are pretty good. If you want history, look at the history of teams with top scoring defenses, top running games, and a roster full of pro bowl level talent on both sides of the ball. Those teams do pretty well. Seattle is fully equipped to make another run, and they're already playing better than they were at the end of last season, so go ahead and pick a lesser team based on history, but I'm taking Seattle to repeat. 

EdwardC.Cooper
EdwardC.Cooper

Impressive my man!(Or woman)? Anyhow… Awesome stats!

davidhd
davidhd

@RobKnorr @Joebuckster RobKnorr, you're the only guy making any sense on this page, and I appreciate having at least one other guy on here who understands basic reasoning. 

AmishPacker
AmishPacker

@davidhd @Joebuckster @RobKnorr I can see your point as to teams keeping their roster. But other super bowl teams have kept their rosters and still gotten no where the next year. The giants and the packers are the big ones that come to mind. Packers had a great super bowl run, no one could stop them. Then they kept the same roster next year and went 15-1. Lost at home to the giants, who ended up winning the whole thing. The giants that barely made the playoffs, but got hot at the right time and went to win the super bowl. Until last year, we had a very impressive streak where a wild card team made it to and sometimes won the super bowl. History is a very good indicator. No indicator should be singled out, but you can't discount it.

As far as Seattle being better than last year, I think that will be the case for Russel nad perhaps Harvin if he can stay healthy which would make Rice maybe valuable again, which he hasn't been since his days with Favre.  But otherwise, you guys lost way more talent than you brought in. Everyone you brought in is either a draft or an leftovers from another team like a Packers OL (if you need a packers released OL... things must be bad on your line). You kept msot of your key players but lost some big ones like Golden Tate (terrible receiver but good jump ball) Breno Giacomini, Red Bryant and Chris Clemons were monsters whom you lost, Clinton McDonald, Brandon Browner, and Walter Thurmond. You were talented enough on defense to survive some of those losses but that D-line is gonna rest a lot on Avril if it has a shot at being as dominant. I see a lot of teams taking advantage of this and going with the run on you as you do on others. You will still likely win the division and possibly 1st seed. But as or more dominant than last year? Sorry, I don't see it. Still one of the best teams though.

RobKnorr
RobKnorr

@davidhd @Joebuckster @RobKnorr Thank you davidhd, you perfectly restated my position.

Peter King's entire reasoning for picking against what he considers the best team is based on a logic fallacy.

BigSchtick
BigSchtick

@PhillyPenn You forgot to add "pal",  "Bro". Just curious if you have an original thought Philly.

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