• Analytics



There Was a 3.1% Chance of an Interception

'Worst play call in NFL history'? Hardly. Looking at all plays from the 1-yard line over the past 15 seasons, and factoring in time management, the Seahawks' play-calling wasn't ideal, but it wasn't that bad either

This One Will Be Close

Early betting lines predict that Super Bowl 49 will be close. Our statistical model agrees. According to the numbers, who is more likely to come out on top on Super Sunday?

Seattle's CenturyLink Field Supremacy

Everyone knows the Seahawks are nearly unbeatable at home, but just how much of a home-field advantage to the Seahawks have over other teams? We dug deep into the numbers to find out

Year in Review: Passing, Offense Trending Up

Aaron Rodgers' overall production in 2014 matched up as one of the best seasons ever by a quarterback. Plus, Russell Wilson's legs carried him into elite company and a look at more analytical trends that surfaced

The Final Over/Under

A college stats professor charts NFL wins, comparing all 32 teams to Vegas and statheads predictions going into the 2014 season

Sanchez or Foles? It Doesn’t Matter

Nick Foles hasn’t been medically cleared yet, but the Eagles shouldn’t rush him back when that happens. Philadelphia has virtually the same chance of making the playoffs (and winning the Lombardi) with Mark Sanchez under center

The Myth of Momentum

Conventional wisdom suggests that it’s best to finish the NFL regular season strong rather than simply being the best team in the playoffs. We crunched the numbers and put that theory to the test

Playoff Scenarios and Probabilities

Among the myriad scenarios, it’s actually conceivable that there could be an eight-way tie at 9-7 (or 10-6), either of which would happen about 1 out of every 1,000 times the NFL played out the final four weeks

Best Rookie Receiver Class Ever?

From Beckham to Evans to Benjamin, this year's class of first-year receivers has made play after play after play. Has there ever been a better group come into the NFL?

Trending South

The NFL hasn't seen a team with a losing record in the playoffs since 2010. The eventual winner of the NFC South—currently led by the four-win Falcons—could be next, which begs the question: is it the worst division in recent NFL history?

Which Records Will Fall?

Andrew Luck, DeMarco Murray, Justin Houston and Julius Thomas are all chasing history. What are the chances one of those stars rewrites the record book in 2014?

With or Without You

Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson left the Ravens and Vikings in a bind this season, but their absence hasn’t really hurt the teams’ performances

The Case for Tony Romo and Philip Rivers

Discussions on the best quarterback of the past decade generally land on four names—Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers. But there's an argument to be made for two more additions, both of whom are having MVP-like seasons in 2014

How Likely Was the Chargers-Jets Shutout?

You might not be shocked that the dysfunctional Jets couldn't put points on the board in San Diego. But just how frequently can we expect to see shutouts in this age of explosive offenses?

Goal-to-Go: Should NFL Teams Pass or Run?

Chip Kelly came under fire after the Eagles threw two incomplete passes from the 1-yard line, turned the ball over on downs and ultimately lost last Sunday’s game. We crunched the data to see whether running or passing the ball is the right call

The Last to Lose

Three teams—the Eagles, Bengals and Cardinals—are 3-0. Which has the best chance of being the last to fall? We ran the numbers to find out

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